Mailbag question: Are we in for another rough year?

Really, enjoy your blog.

You give us great discussion and depth good or bad and I like that.

It sounds to me that with everything I have read on the team this year that we are in for another rough year. How do you think the year is going to turn out?

In addition, realistically how long will it be before we start looking like a good team again?


Thanks

Robinson3255

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Thanks for the question.

We still think that 6-6 is not just doable, but the minimum for this year. Take a look at the schedule. There is no reason Michigan should not make a bowl game this year.

7-5 with good improvement is what we'd like to see. And 8-4 or 9-3 would make this a great season. Can they go better than that right now? Maybe, but it depends on how the young, inexperienced defense gels together, and of course how the offense responds to the spread in year two.

We think you can count five wins right now over the following teams:Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Indiana, Delaware State, and Purdue.

Then there are the teams that are about the same as they were last year, or are similar to each other this year: Michigan State, Iowa Penn State, Illinois, and Wisconsin. A lot of those games could go either way; most of those teams we match up pretty well with in overall talent. In all honesty, though, we are not up to speed on those other teams and how they are doing this spring.

It is also about time for Michigan to beat some teams that they are not expected to. When was the last time a Michigan team beat another team they were an underdog to? The Florida bowl game … yeah … before that, the Alabama bowl game in the Orange Bowl. We feel (hope?) that Michigan is due for a few breaks.

When do we see them getting better? Well 2010 should be the year, with many experienced players back on offense and defense, and they'll have a quarterback that will have one full season (and hopefully a bowl game and the practices that go with it) under his belt.

We feel that the Big Ten will be down this year and that Michigan has the talent to compete in the conference.

This season seems to be one that the offense will have to carry the burden for. The defense is young and is on its third coordinator in three years. Inexperience, a lack of depth, learning a new scheme, young players having to play significant roles--it's finger crossing time right about now. Without adequate depth, we have to hope for to very few injuries (preferably none!). The answers to the questions "What if?" to "Who will step up?" to "Can they limit mistakes or learn from them really quickly?" to "How much will the mistakes and/or injuries hurt the team?" are huge and cannot be easily answered. We expect to see a team that looks really good at times, and may look really bad at times.

The offense has many weapons and depth is not a real issue except for the quarterback position. If Tate can stay healthy and is allowed to just manage the game, Michigan should be fine. However, if they get behind and have to put a lot of pressure on Tate “to win the game” for them as a freshman, well, that is a lot to ask right now. They are loaded at running back and need to keep those guys healthy to carry this team and take the pressure off Tate. They have athletes at the slot position and split end as well--just get them the ball--and let them do their thing.

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