GBMW: Clustering the Big 11

Clustering the Big 11

Levels of performance and observable differences are what researchers study. Football is studied in Vegas with massive programs based on the strongest research and analytical scrutiny. But even though every week many of the point spread predictions are scary-close, like the weather, predicting football success ahead of time will always be an imperfect venture.

There are teams that have little chance of falling flat this season and will remain top 10 likely the entire year. There will be comers and goers, the yin-yangs, the up and down teams that drive gamblers to the poor house.

Still, in any venture variables tend to cluster in somewhat predictable patterns. Usually, there are three clusters involving Ben 10 football teams: the elite, fighting to go to a national championship game or BCS bowl; the scramblers, teams that need every win to safely make it to any bowl game and the teams that need plenty of help and are season long Cinderellas that feed the win column for the others.

It is still a little early to peg teams into the three clusters afore mentioned. But is not that early, so here goes, see if you agree.

After all, some have had only quizzes but others have already had tough midterms. Many of you may find this clustering offered below predictable and simple. But in most years a surprise emerges in any of the three clusters. Remember, in the good ol’ days there were two clusters; Michigan and Ohio State and everyone else moved to a second cluster that may as well been called the insignificant who cares all you others. But this is still the time of year when most dreams remain afloat.

Cluster 1 – The Elites-

Ohio State and Penn State-

Make no mistake about the USC result; Ohio State is still a powerhouse, especially on defense. USC did indeed have new starters in many key positions, but the Ohio State defense only broke on the last drive. The back seven is very good and only a team with the talent of SC could exploit anything. The Jim Tressel micromanaging may keep the offense down but this group will roll the pretenders. There may be close games with the second cluster, the scramblers, and any loss to this second tier likely Dunkirk’s another BCS bowl. The Columbus faithful firmly believe that Penn State is the only other game OSU could lose. Coach Tressel knows better. This team is in a very unfamiliar position, being one or two injuries on offense away from being a scrambler. But there is enough talent on the defense that the Ohio State team could survive several injuries.

Do not believe all the guys behind the curtain informing you that PSU has no lines. Forget it, few universities load up and develop linemen like the Lions. This team is tough, plays tough, and makes few mistakes, a recipe for giving OSU a challenge. The defense is rarely fooled and exceptionally schooled.

The question for PSU remains the passing game, more specifically the receivers. Will they ascend to a level needed to make big plays in big games?

Cluster 2 – The Scramblers

Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Illinois

The games between the scramblers will likely be the best and most entertaining of the season. In this group there is similar talent, different styles, and teams that can be Jeckyll and Hyde from week to week. One of these teams could spoil the BCS hopes of OSU or PSU and then give a victory away the very next week. There is enough talent here to challenge the two elite teams. Will there be enough things go right to pull off a big upset?

Iowa plays so well at home, Michigan is building speed, MSU is banking on physical ball, as is Wisconsin, and Illinois hopes to ride the Juice again.

Any of the cluster 2 teams could rise or fall. After two games, Wisconsin looks like Wisconsin, great at times and very so-so at times. Illinois always sends people off to scratch their heads, one way or another.

Cluster 3 – Teams that Need Help

Minnesota, Northwestern, Purdue, and Indiana.

There is some fine coaching in this group that will be, as usual, handicapped by a talent differential. Not one of these teams is so down that an upset is out of the question. It would be a great shock to see any of the cluster 3 teams beat an elite. But almost certainly there will be more than one win by a cluster 3 team against the scramblers.

Several of these teams have already been helped by some squeaky wins. But a win is a win when going for bowl eligibility.

Minnesota still looks average on defense at best. Northwestern is a never say die team that must scramble every play, let alone every week. Purdue could go to the woodshed this year. It really is much to ask for great success with a coaching change, not matter how smooth the transition was meant to be. Indiana is very well coached, but lost some high talent.

Keep this article in mind, it will be interesting to see which way the toter-teetered.

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Written by Doc4Blu