GBMWolverine: GBMW Preview and Predictions: Indiana at Michigan -- HOMECOMING

Indiana at Michigan

Go Blue Michigan Wolverine Preview:

The University of Michigan has one of the most storied programs in college athletics history, Michigan football. Indiana University also has one of the most storied programs in history, Hoosier basketball. Last year, both storied programs took a hit and look forward to a big rebound this year.

Contrasting is the history of Michigan basketball and Indiana football; both are attempting to gain the success of the more storied sibling. Certainly one way for IU football to climb a big rung on the way to success would be to pull a semi-shocker this weekend and beat UM at the Big House.

Why use the phrase semi-shocker? After last week’s game where Washington took out Southern Cal, the term shocker must be reserved for events not thought possible. But as an aside Southern Cal is starting to collect as many shockers as championships.

Another reason to not mandate the full term use of the word shocker, over semi-shocker, is the recent success of Indiana, now 3 and 0. Indiana has started strong the last few years and going 4 and 0 after Saturday’s game could propel the Hoosiers to a great chance at a bowl. This is not a relative of the 1-10 teams of former times. It is only one year removed from IU’s last football bowl, the same as UM.

So how good are the Hoosiers? It is early but the answer seems to be good enough that UM better practice hard, play well, and be ready for some trickery. Indiana has beaten two mid-level teams, Eastern Kentucky and Western Michigan, by less than a touchdown, but had a really good day against a decent Akron squad.

This game ends the month-long home stand for the Wolverines before taking on a difficult two game road swing to Iowa and MSU. So, get the hay in while the sun is shining. Indiana is thinking the same as after the game Saturday the Hoosiers next face Ohio State and Virginia.

This game is not near as predictable as was the Eastern game. Still, many things may be interesting for readers to consider in making your own determination about the game’s outcome.

Indiana has heralded the part-time switch to the pistol offense. In the pistol, the primary back plays directly behind the quarterback who takes the snap about five yards deep. Typically, the TE side has one out and the other side has two. The sales pitch for the pistol over the Coach Rod type of spread is that the offense can make defenders misread more often, resulting in bigger plays. IU has shown some success with big plays out of the pistol but has also lined up in a wildcat and under center. Likely, IU is still very capable of running ALL the reads and packages off of Coach Hoeppner’s spread read offense.

Out of these formation choices, Indiana has run the ball pretty well so far this season, topping 200 in the Western Michigan game. This team has busted several big plays; a must for spread and hybrid spread teams. It makes perfect sense, after the last two weeks, for IU to go straight at the heart of the Wolverine defense as well as hit a big play off the perimeter, now and then on the read. Hoosier running back McCray is over five yards a carry for the season and had a break out game of over 130 yards. The Hoosiers will make UM stop the running game, something that did not happen in the first half the last two weeks for the Wolverines. By running, IU can shorten the game and keep a pretty good offense of Michigan’s harmlessly on the bench.

Defensively, IU has not (likely will not) shutout anyone recently. But do not get the false security that IU is porous. Like, Michigan the defense has done enough, but just enough. This will be the first test for IU against a truly fast spread team with good balance.

Western’s Hiller had a pretty good day against Indiana. Remember, subs or not, Hiller was very good in the second half against Michigan. Michigan coaches know the offense must be more diversified and demonstrate the ability to gain yardage by running and passing this week. A one-dimensional effort will make the game close and for anyone’s taking.

What might UM game for this week on offense? It would make sense for the offense to perhaps try and establish the perimeter first and loosen IU up somewhat so that the middle becomes vulnerable later. Michigan cannot allow IU to load the box, so showing success on the perimeter and with the passing game becomes a game key. The defense of IU is experienced, so UM cannot let this unit dictate the flow of the game.

Hagerup is a name Michigan recruiting followers are familiar with, and this version of the Hagerup kicking clan is averaging 42 yards a punt. In addition, the other special teams have been sound for the Hoosiers. If the game comes down to special teams, the shootout remains close.

Several things this week will factor into the game against Indiana. We believe that weather could be a factor, especially if the weathermen are correct (the forecast is for possible rain). Wet weather brings about the reality of wet footballs, an obvious concern for young teams, as witnessed last year at Notre Dame. The team that can best adapt to the weather (less turnovers) will have the best chance for being successful.

We are not sure, but we don't think there is one Big Ten team that can totally stop Michigan's ground game, and nothing that we have seen of Indiana so far tells us this week will be any different, with or without Molk who is out 4-6 weeks with a broken leg.

Michigan, we believe, will again churn out 200 plus yards and Tate will bounce back to have a solid game.

The issues still for Michigan will be on the other side of the ball. Can Michigan slow down the Indiana running game and can UM generate a pass rush at all? If the Wolverines cannot satisfy either of these conditions, then Michigan will have a tough game to grind out.

The bottom line is Michigan has better talent than Indiana, period. Injuries aside, this will be a somewhat close game for a while, maybe for a half, and then Michigan will slightly pull away by the fourth quarter to win.

Stat of the week...Michigan has scored as many points in the third quarter THIS YEAR (3 games) as for the entire 2008 football season (12 games).

Keys to beating Indiana:

How well does Michigan deal with the two Indiana defensive ends? This might be the best set Michigan sees all season.

IU’s middle linebacker is also a very good football player.

Look for Michigan to use inside and read option to slow down the defensive ends.

Also, we would not be surprised to see more split end screens to slow down the Indiana rush. Indiana’s rushing game is just average, so UM should hold the fort. The key to beating Michigan is likely running the football.

Will this be a game where Michigan comes out and dominates from the start, or is there a little hangover left from a game like last week where it took UM awhile to get into the groove and play solid football? This Michigan team, being so young, cannot look ahead to next week’s opponent, Michigan State, or there might be some peripheral damage.

The overall key to the game might be which offense can control the clock and the game at the same time. Those spread guys; they love to talk about how time of possession means little. But every one of them will take it as a “bonus.” Enjoy the start of the Bit Ten season.

Go Blue Michigan Wolverine -- Predictions