Michigan Basketball: Big Ten Hoops Pre-conference Basketball Preview – continued

Posted at 4:00pm -- 12/30/2009




Big Ten Hoops Pre-conference Basketball Preview – continued

The three teams mentioned yesterday as being top-tier cement mixer teams, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Minnesota, are good bets to make the NCAA field. Of the three, Wisconsin is probably a lock.

Now, the review finally gets to the three teams that will need to fight, scramble, and take advantage of every tiny micro-break during the Big Ten season to make the NCAA field. These three, in the belly of a tough cement mixer, are Penn State, Northwestern, and Michigan. Let it be again stated that Michigan is in the mix by a mere thread and everything, literally everything, must go the Wolverines way to make progress and have a chance at a winning record and March tournament play.

Last year the cement mixer produced a ton of Big Ten teams talking about going 9-9 in the conference and working from the basic assumption that meeting the .500 criteria in Big Ten play should be good enough for tournament selection. This did not work in all cases. Every year the talk is how many teams from the Big Ten should go on the big dance, five, six, seven, or (gasp) even eight. A couple of key wins and announcers start talking about guaranteed numbers, until of course someone loses a key late match-up and revisionism runs amuck. Looking at what the conference has done so far, and taking into account the associated preseason competition and records, six or seven teams being selected seems a safe bet.

Penn State is 8-4 overall and 2-2 against good competition. Take into account just decent competition and the record actually falls to 2-4. Penn State has some weaknesses, compared to the top tier of cement mixer teams. The biggest strength is a wonderful player, Taylor Battle. With the injury to Evan Turner, Taylor is in a small number of players who will be seriously competing for Big Ten Player of the Year honors.

Penn State does not pass the big three contributors criteria, but does pass the contributors benchmark (five), having seven players that to this point have provided meaningful minutes and scoring. Battle is the only Lion in double figures, hitting nearly 19 points a game. Jeff Brooks, Chris Babb, Tim Frazier, David Jackson, Bill Edwards, and Andrew Jones are all contributing more than six points per game and providing needed minutes.

The Lions have good but not overwhelming size. Rebounding, like so many college teams of this era, will be by committee. The team typically runs a smart half-court offense that takes advantage of Battle’s various skills. So, far, the half-court offense has been just decent, nothing more. The shooting is a little puzzling in that the 2-point percentage is low and the 3- point percentage is pretty good. The freshmen need to continually grow if the lions are to see tournament time.

Northwestern is 10-1, that is correct, 10-1. The team is 4-1 against good competition. So, the Wildcats (not mildcats) have played patsies, right? NO, the program has played a very reasonable pre-conference schedule, stronger than many of the league’s teams. Against good competition, Northwestern is 4-1, losing to Butler (yes, Butler again). Think about this, Northwestern went 3-0 on a quick three game road trip against Notre Dame, Iowa State, and North Carolina State. This was not murderer’s row, but very impressive nonetheless. Few teams play purist basketball anymore, opting for securing overwhelming talent instead. Northwestern, has never been able to secure such talent, for various reasons, and so Bill Carmody was secured. Gone are the days where everyone beats Northwestern down by 30 plus points. This team and its style can be effective against overwhelming talent.

But Northwestern does have talent, but its talent is just not as athletic as the other league teams. Northwestern passes the three major contributors and five contributors benchmarks. The Wildcats are led by one of the most interesting players to watch in the Big Ten, John Shurna. Shurna is a true nearly perfect fit for a particular system that fans constantly hear referenced. In this case, the 6’8 Shurna can deliver the goods expected of a true Princeton type center, namely smart play, excellent high post passing, great decision-making, and stepping out to hit shots to open up the backdoor cuts.

The other two players who can be said to be making major contributions are guard Michael Thompson, a good athlete scoring nearly 16 points per game, and Drew Crawford (a freshman), averaging 10 per game. Three other players score enough and play enough minutes to be considered as contributors: Jeremy Nash, 6’ 11” Luka Mirkovic, and Alex Marcotullio (another freshman).

Northwestern has enough height to play a big lineup if needed. Mirkovic plays about 24 minutes a game and without him, Northwestern must play small. The problem is the team is not quick enough to get into a back and forth up-the-floor type of game. This is why when Northwestern shoots one can sometimes see four players just concede the ball and get to the other end. The three point shooting is currently above the bar of 35% needed for success. This team will struggle inside and demonstrates little ability to block shots. Shurna dominates rebounding and the rest is by committee.

Leagues use the traditional bottom dwellers as sacrificial lambs, and the opening four game schedule and some of the puzzling calls that will arise in games going down the conference stretch run will not benefit Northwestern. This is a good team and one that requires preparation, or else, Northwestern will have a scalp.

Michigan still suffers from the overall talent level that Coach Beilein took over three years ago. Adding to this dilemma is the recent revelation that Ben Cronin will not be able to provide the needed inside help for the basketball program, neither will injured Jordan Morgan (a freshman). This leaves Michigan with a rubric’s cube solution as to where to play the pieces to solve a puzzle of strange parts.

Michigan is limping into the conference season with a very disappointing 6-5 record. Creighton (7 loses), and Detroit are the lone wins of any consequence. The primary culprit has been poor shooting. But when a team shows little desire to go inside and establish an inside game, the perimeter defense will tighten up and those nice horse game type of unopposed jump shots quickly become difficult efforts. Currently Michigan is shooting less than 30% from behind the 3-point line and 42% overall. If the shooting does not improve the league forecast is cloudy and cold. Compounding the offensive situation is another side effect a decimated inside game has created, an inability (or flat out refusal) to play even remotely good team defense. This has led to easy buckets by teams that hit the offensive boards hard. With little help-defense, Michigan is letting opponents hit at near 50% from the field.

Michigan certainly has a big two when it comes to major contributors, but clearly does not pass the benchmark of three major contributors. Viewers can easily see the downside of this shortcoming, as when the big two of Harris and Sims are controlled the offense can become unproductive and even just flat out ugly.

Many Harris is certainly on the short list of candidates for player of the year. Likely unless the team comes on that honor may be remote. Manny is the only Big Ten player averaging over 20 points per game and is also averaging over 7 rebounds. Deshawn Sims, who shows skills for both small forward and power forward, has talent and gives effort, but Deshawn simply cannot dominate a game single-handed, few players can. Deshawn is averaging over 16 points per game and works hard inside, frequently alone.

Michigan fares better when talking about overall contributors. Five meet the criteria and two others are nearing this designation. Novak, Douglass, and Laval Lucas-Perry all average over 6 points, but there is little consistency in this threesome. Only Lucas-Perry is shooting over the benchmark of 35% from three-point land. Zack Gibson and Darius Morris are needed, much so, for this team to win. The writer has no worries about Morris; he is a very serious player and has been somewhat hesitant. When he gets confidence and gets into the flow, Darius will pass others on the roster.

Michigan may be the least impressive physical team in the conference, perhaps excluding only Iowa and Northwestern. While the team possesses the very athletic Harris and Sims, that is about it. Novak busts his butt, but asking the small (he is not 6’5) Novak to anchor the inside defense in the 1-3-1 is asking much, very much. He loves to compete, so oh-well. Too many of Michigan’s players simply loose out when other players evenly contest them for the ball. While the team is rarely in foul trouble (a good considering the depth), the downside is points are not contested with any passion or message.

One of Michigan’s many problems is that certain roster players are simply non-contributors. Puls does not play and Anthony Wright has either vaporized or sublimated. There must be a story accompanying this observation somewhere out there in the hinterland. Prized freshman shooter Matt Vogrich is only seeing spot duty. Clearly he needs to develop physically. If the season’s bottom falls out, Vogrich may get much on-the-job-training for next year.

Michigan’s problems are obvious but the solutions may not be forthcoming. Things could fall into place for the team to make a mid-conference run or the bottom could fall out like a trapdoor.

Finally, tomorrow will bring discussion on the last two Big Ten teams, Indiana and Iowa. One is improving and one is not.

Thank you for reading and continue to visit GBMW.

Written by Doc4blu

Go Blue -- Wear Maize!