WMU BRONCOS / WOLVERINES HOCKEY PREVIEW
MICHIGAN (10-10-0, 5-7-0) 10th in the CCHA
Western Michigan (6-10-4, 2-9-3-1) T12th in the CCHA
Friday, 1/08 7:35 PM Lawson Arena, Kalamazoo
Saturday, 1/09 7:35 PM Yost Ice Arena
No television, PPV streaming only
Bucking The Trend:
Michigan and Western Michigan meet for the 100th time on Friday night, with Michigan holding a 63-26-10 series lead. The Wolverines have won the last three meetings, dating back to last season, splitting an earlier home and home series (both teams winning on the road) and then meeting in the CCHA Quarterfinals. Michigan handled the Broncos 5-2 and 6-1 last March at Yost to advance to the JLA.
Michigan has dominated the Broncos since the early 90’s and hasn’t lost consecutive games to the Broncos since dropping a first round playoff series (in three games) back in 1988. That last game, matter of fact, was Michigan’s worst defeat against WMU, a 10-0 series ending thumping in Kalamazoo, which occurred after Michigan took the first game 5-4 and lost a heartbreaking 4-3 decision. Ironically Michigan returned the favor, hammering the Broncos by the same 10-0 margin in 1992, and then 10-3 in 2003, the most goals scored in the series by the Wolverines.
Lonely Corral:
WMU’s program has been a perennial bottom dweller since the mid 1990’s, and it appears that this season will be no different. The Broncos are currently tied with Bowling Green for last place in the CCHA. Still, the Broncos are not as hapless as it appears. The team plays a careful, trapping style under Coach Jim Culhane, and have kept their opponents close this season. Although it is not reflected in the win column, this is a scrappy, feisty team that is a balance of youth and experience- thirteen upperclassmen, including six seniors, lead fourteen underclassmen on the ice.
Western has played most of the CCHA heavyweights this season, including a close home and home sweep to MSU, with a series ending 5-3 loss to the Spartans- the most goals given up this season in a game by the Broncos. Earlier this season in Kalamazoo, Western succumbed to Miami and then tied the Redhawks on consecutive nights. They were swept in Omaha by the Mavericks, losing two 2-goal games, as well as losing to surprising Ferris State, during the first set of four meetings this season. Their highlight this season (other than sweeps over lightweight non-conference opponents Mercyhurst and UAH) was a home win and tie over the upstart Alaska Nanooks. Their last action saw them take on Bemidji State last week, where the Broncos skated to an inspiring 0-0 tie and then a 3-0 loss. The Broncos are 4-4-4 at home and 2-6 on the road this season.
The second half schedule for Western Michigan doesn’t get any easier, as they meet the Wolverines, BG, NMU, Notre Dame and still have to finish cluster play with Miami, Ohio State and Ferris State.
Looking For Someone To Lead The Pack:
The Broncos do not play a wide-open style of hockey, as the numbers pare out. They currently allow an average of 2.6 goals per game, while hitting the twine at a 2.1 goals per game clip. It appears that the Broncos get their legs under them in the second stanza, outscoring opponents 15-12. Unfortunately for them, they start slow, being outscored by a 16-11 margin in the first period, and then an even wider 24-16 margin in the third period when it appears that they are behind and desperate to climb back into games.
Their special team numbers are mixed, with a respectable PK at 82%, and an awful 11.3% conversion rate on their power play opportunities. It tends to put a strain on an offense, especially when considering an average of 6 penalties/12 minutes a game, although this is a full five minutes less than what Michigan is offering opponents right now.
Western relies on a couple of young guns to lead its offense. Sophomore J.J. Crew sets the pace with 7-6-13, including two GWG’s. Sophomore Greg Squires is the Bronco assist leader, with a 1-12-13 total. The rest of the scoring is by committee, led by Freshman Trevor Elias’ 5-5-10, Senior Jared Katz’s 5-4-9, Senior Chris Clackson’s 5-4-9 and Senior Cam Watson’s 3-6-9. Clackson is also abrasive, chipping in with 30 PIM’s on the season.
The defense is led by another pair of Seniors- Tyler Ludwig (son of former Montreal Canadiens defenseman, Craig Ludwig), and Jordan Collins, who not only leads the Broncos at +6, but also leads the team in PIM’s with 32. Freshmen Luke Witkowski and Matt Tennyson also appear to get regular playing time on the blueline, albeit without impressive defensive numbers. Witkowski currently sits at 9 for the season and has taken 20 PIM’s.
The true bright spot for WMU is in goal. Senior Riley Gill is 5-7-3 on the year, with a shutout and solid 2.38 GAA. He also has an impressive .929 Sv%. His play last season at Yost stole the game for the Broncos, as he shut down the Wolverines. He is the X-factor in this series, and any success the Broncos enjoy will be on account of his play. His back up is Jerry Kuhn, 1-3-1 on the season with a 2.77 GAA and .909 Sv%.
Wolverine Notes:
Michigan returns to second half action from a disappointing 1-1, third place showing at the GLI. The same bugaboos seem to be biting this team: poor goaltending, lack of discipline and failure to execute offensively. To compound the problem, the Wolverine’s PK has slipped in the past four games, allowing opponents to convert on 20% of their chances. It has dropped the season average to 89% efficiency, good for fourth in the nation. Couple that with 17.4 PIM’s per game (9th) Michigan continues to spend too much time and energy killing penalties. Michigan is now averaging 2.9 goals per game, which slipped them even further to 30th in the country. At the same time, their goals against average moved to 2.40, which leveled UM at 11th in the country. Ironically, the Maize and Blue are 8-3 when holding their opponents to two or fewer goals per game. They have lost all three games that they have held opponents to 13 or less shots (Alaska, Miami and now RPI.) which is more an indictment on their goaltending and scoring execution than anything.
Michigan is out-shooting opponents 33-23 on the average. The power play sits 34th in the country at just under an 18% conversion rate. It was clear that Michigan could have used a goal or two more against RPI, once again making an opponent’s goaltending look like a leading Hobey Baker candidate.
Carl Hagelin increased his team lead in goals to ten, to go along with ten assists. He has been the model of consistency for Michigan, adding one point in 14 of 20 games this season and notching at least one point in all ten series this season. Coach Berenson moved the lines around at the GLI, pairing Rust and Lynch with Hagelin, Lebler, Caporusso and Brown, Wohlberg, Glendening and Treais, and finally Sparks, Winnett and Vaughn. It seemed to work as the Wolverines dominated both games offensively, putting up 100 shots and getting much better balanced scoring. The power play still seems a bit stale, and the goaltending suspect. Bryan Hogan now sports a 2.35 GAA, with a subpar .899 Sv%.
One final note as we enter into the second half of the season: it will soon be time to start to examine the factors that affect post season qualification, i.e. the PWR, RPI and all of those other fancy acronyms that are used to describe the criteria process. There isn’t much to talk about just yet, as Michigan has a ton of work to do to get back into any kind of consideration. Let me leave you with this, though- and this was seen on another site, so it is not official, but I bet it is accurate- Michigan will have to win at a .800 clip to gain entry into the race for the sixteen NCAA bid slots. Splitting series and losing home games will not cut it. That is a tall task, and with the schedule this team has down the stretch, they will most likely not qualify for the NCAA tournament, especially if they drop games to teams like Bowling Green and WMU.
This week’s keys to the match up:
1. Bryan Hogan MUST provide sufficient enough goaltending to allow his team to win.
2. WMU is going to give up scoring chances- the quest, especially at home on Saturday, is to not allow Riley Gill to gain confidence. Bury the chances and make the Broncos come from behind, something they are not good at.
3. Execute on special teams. WMU’s PP may be poor, but there is no sense in helping them.
Prediction:
Friday Michigan 2 WMU 1
Saturday Michigan 3 WMU 2
Written by Yostmeister
Go Blue -- Wear Maize!
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